Bubble Watch: Will Joe Gibbs Racing Dominate the 2025 Cup Series?
By Cameron Richardson | October 17, 2025
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The 2025 NASCAR Cup Series is heating up, and the championship race is shaping up to be a thrilling showdown. While Joey Logano almost pulled off a daring move in Las Vegas, it was Denny Hamlin who secured his spot in the Championship 4 with a dominant performance. Now, all eyes are on Talladega Superspeedway, where the Round of 8 will unfold in a dramatic Sunday afternoon showdown (2 p.m. ET, NBC, Peacock, HBO Max, MRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio).
Before the green flag waves, let's dive into the Bubble Watch, analyzing the contenders and underdogs who will battle for a spot in the next round.
(Stats provided by Racing Insights)
- Denny Hamlin (ADV):
Denny Hamlin is safely above the elimination line, and his performance in Las Vegas was a testament to his skill. With a win under his belt, Hamlin secured his first Champ 4 appearance since 2021. Hamlin's consistency and speed make him a strong favorite to continue his dominance in the upcoming races.
- Kyle Larson:
Kyle Larson is on fire, with an impressive 35 points above the cutline and an 83.2% chance of advancing to the next round. Larson's average finish of 9.6 on superspeedways this season is a remarkable achievement. He's proving his mastery of pack racing, with top-five finishes in his last two trips to Talladega.
- Christopher Bell:
Christopher Bell is on a roll, with eight top-10 finishes in the 10-race playoffs last season. He's well on his way to repeating that success. However, Bell needs a win in the next two races to secure his spot in the Championship 4. His recent third-place results showcase his consistency, but Talladega has been a challenge, with just three top-10 finishes in 11 starts.
- Chase Briscoe:
Chase Briscoe's crew chief, James Small, made a bold move in Las Vegas, and it paid off with a top-five finish. However, Talladega will be a different story for Briscoe, who has only two top-10 finishes in nine 'Dega starts. The track presents a significant challenge for Briscoe's chances of advancing.
- William Byron:
William Byron's playoff run took a turn for the worse after a collision with Ty Dillon. Byron now sits below the cutline, but Talladega has been kind to him in recent years. With finishes no worse than seventh since the spring of 2023, Byron has a strong chance of bouncing back and advancing to the next round.
- Chase Elliott:
Chase Elliott's playoff run suffered a setback at Las Vegas due to an untimely tire penalty. Despite being a two-time winner at Talladega, Elliott's recent success has been inconsistent. He's had top-10 finishes in two of the last four races, but also struggled with 15th- and 29th-place runs.
- Joey Logano:
Joey Logano's performance in Las Vegas was a relief, finishing sixth after taking two tires in the closing laps. However, Logano's history at Talladega is less than impressive. With just one 19th-place finish in the Gen 7 era, Logano will need to overcome his track struggles to advance.
- Ryan Blaney:
Ryan Blaney's season has been a rollercoaster, with concerning similarities to his last three races at Talladega. Since his win in New Hampshire, Blaney's best finish has been 13th at the Charlotte Roval. His performance at Talladega has been underwhelming, with a best finish of 20th and crashes in the last two races.
